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Forex Flash: AUD/USD, outlook is bearish but be patient - RBS

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/USD bearish outlook has strengthened after the technical break of the previous 1.02 to 1.04 range, says Greg Gibbs, currency analyst at RBS.

Greg argues: "The reasons for AUD to fall are that the USD is stronger and confidence around growth in China has deteriorated. Commodity indicators are generally pointing down, but have not collapsed and in fact some have stabilised in recent trading."

Mr Gibbs sees "a high probability that recent shorts in AUD are frustrated out of positions and it rebounds to 1.02 again."

"We have been forecasting 0.98 at year end and a steady decline over the coming years. The growth outlook in China remains key to commodities and AUD. We see downside risks to our year end and year ahead forecasts" he added.

Forex: GBP/USD completes ‘bear flag’ pattern on daily chart

The Sterling closed the session down 56 pips at 1.5301. Earlier in the session, the RICS Housing Price was released which came in at 1% actual vs. 2% estimate. Expect volatility to really pick up later in the week when get UK Claimant Count Change and the BOE Quarterly Inflation report. The pair is currently trading up 20 pips at 1.5318 during Asia trade.
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Forex: EUR/USD still range bound ahead of busy economic calendar week

The EUR/USD finished the day slightly higher, up 26 pips at 1.2981. The pair traded as low as 1.2941 at one point, but again held the important support level which marks the lower end of the trading range the pair has been in since mid March. The main economic data released during the course of the previous day was US Retail Sales, which came in better than expected at 0.1% actual vs. -0.3% forecast. Market participants should be aware of the upcoming German Zew data due out at 9:00GMT. This is just one of many important economic indicators that will be released from both Europe and the US during the course of the week. The pair is currently edging higher during Asia trade, up 30 pips at 1.3010.
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