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Forex: AUD/NZD edges higher after NZD retail sales data

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/NZD finished the day down 3 pips at 1.0259. Earlier in the session NZD Retail sales were released at 22:45GMT which came in below expectations (0.5% actual vs. 0.8% estimate). The pair was trading as low as 1.2045 before the print, but has since edged higher up to 1.2075. Later in the day we will see the Aussie Budget Balance, which is due out at 9:00GMT.

According to Sean Callow of Westpac, "Australia’s data calendar is clear ahead of the annual federal budget (7:30pm Syd/5:30pm Sing/HK). Westpac looks for a headline -A$14bn deficit in 2012/13 (-0.9%/GDP), a sharp narrowing from 2011/12’s -$43.7bn but of course well short of the surplus promised until Dec 2012. Revenue has fallen short, mostly due to lower receipts from company, petroleum and mining taxes."

He went on to add, “A one year delay in the auction of digital spectrum rights also cut receipts by $4bn but will help 2013/14’s bottom line, which we project to be -$8bn (-0.5%/GDP). Spending appears to have actually undershot the mid-year review by about $1bn. A deficit around our expectations should be received calmly by AUD and bond markets, especially as the major ratings agencies are likely to reaffirm Australia’s AAA rating some time in the London session.”

The FXStreet.com Trend Index remains in Slightly Bearish set up on the daily chart, while the OB/OS Index reads Neutral. Initial support comes in at 1.2049 (the 50dma on 1 hour chart), followed by 1.2020 (support base on1 hour chart). First resistance comes in at 1.2090 (previous day high), followed by 1.2108 (the 20dma).

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