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Forex Flash: USD/CAD may be setting up for a push higher later in the week – TD Securities

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The USD/CAD traded in a fairly wide range today, but closed flat at 1.0104. The pair was coming off of sharp gains the previous two days, and may be in for some consolidation in the near term before posting a new leg up.

According to Shaun Osborn, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, “USD/CAD’s short-term rally has stalled in the mid-1.01 zone. Short-term trends appear a little softer, in fact. We think the cap on the USD in the mid 1.01 area may mean some modest corrective moves are in store for the USD in the early part of this week—perhaps back to the 1.0050/60 area. If losses base here and the USD picks up again, the market may be setting itself up for a push higher later in the week (above 1.00150/60).

He went on to add, “We can be more constructive on the USD’s broader outlook because of the strong rebound in spot late last week. The market formed a bullish key reversal day Thursday, after the USD slipped to a new low but closed net higher on the day, with the intraday high exceeding the previous session’s. This is effectively a more powerful outside range session signal. We still prefer to buy modest USD dips nearterm.”

Forex Flash: Aus deficit around expectations to be received calmly by AUD - Westpac

Australia’s annual federal budget (9.30GMT) is expected to show, according to Sean Callow, FX strategist at Westpac, "a headline -A$14bn deficit in 2012/13 (-0.9%/GDP), a sharp narrowing from 2011/12’s -$43.7bn but of course well short of the surplus promised until Dec 2012" the bank notes.
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Forex: AUD/NZD edges higher after NZD retail sales data

The AUD/NZD finished the day down 3 pips at 1.0259. Earlier in the session NZD Retail sales were released at 22:45GMT which came in below expectations (0.5% actual vs. 0.8% estimate). The pair was trading as low as 1.2045 before the print, but has since edged higher up to 1.2075. Later in the day we will see the Aussie Budget Balance, which is due out at 9:00GMT.
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