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The week ahead with key events, Central Banks -Rabobank

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted the events this week come with the more from the Central Banks.

Key Quotes:

“Today we get China’s July property prices, so we can see how badly their own bubble is faring – the spike in the number of cities seeing declining home prices has been far sharper in this downturn than back in 2012, and is unlikely to be resolved quickly given over-supply problems. Apart from that we have the US NAHB home builder index, which is seen unchanged at 53: will there be any further signs of the housing slowdown in this series to complete the set?”
“Tomorrow we have the RBA’s latest minutes; UK CPI, PPI, and another house-price survey; and US CPI, housing starts and building permits”.

“Wednesday has RBA Governor Steven’s semi-annual testimony; Japanese trade data; the BOE’s last set of minutes; and also the FOMC’s minutes. The central-bank speak will be closely examined to try to clarify what is going on in policy-making circles: (i.e., are interest rates actually going to go up ahead or not? When? And how much?). Such clarity would be welcomed by the markets given the mixed signals being sent by most policy-makers recently (The hand-sitting RBA being an exception). However, it seems most likely that the authorities will both directly and indirectly send the message that they themselves don’t really know what’s going on at the moment, and as we will still be stuck with “Carry on Central Banking”.

“Thursday Japan has its manufacturing PMI, as does China, the Eurozone, and the US; we also see UK retail sales and public finances; Eurozone consumer confidence; and US existing home sales. It’s also the start of the 3-day Jackson Hole summit, where central bankers can all get together in the wild beauty of nature; congratulate themselves on their response to the global crisis; pontificate on their respective paths of policy normalization to the press; and - off the record - ask each other if anyone actually understands what they can do to generate a sustainable recovery in the “new normal”.

“Indeed, on Friday we get Yellen and Draghi speaking from Jackson Hole (with the BOE’s Broadbent getting a Saturdayslot). Will any of them use that soap-box to make a substantive policy statement? Or will it be more of the same old Carry On?”

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