Jackson Hole outcome not expected to signal delay in Fed tightening - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities believes that the outcome of the Jackson Hole conference, which kicks off on Thursday next week, will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side in terms of the Fed monetary policy outlook.

Key quotes

"The theme of this year’s conference is 're-evaluating labour market dynamics,' an area that has raised a lot of questions for central bankers lately. For the US, the big question is whether the drop in the participation rate is structural or cyclical."

"While Yellen has always leaned toward the latter, any research placing more weight on the structural explanation and suggesting that the Fed needs to start tightening policy sooner rather than later could certainly get some market attention."

"In the UK in particular, there’s an ongoing discussion around why wage growth has been so slow to pick up while the unemployment rate has been tumbling, and there may be some debate around whether this type of scenario is going to be the new normal for some developed economies, or whether the lags are just longer than usual."

"At the end of the day, we think that the outcome will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side, with nothing coming from Jackson Hole to suggest that the Fed needs to put off the beginning of tightening any more than markets are already expecting."