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UK June Unemployment Rate expected to fall further but wages to remain muted - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities, believes that UK June unemployment data, due out on Wednesday next week, will show a further drop in an unemployment rate but at the same time weak wage growth.

Key quotes

"For the unemployment rate, early consensus is looking for a 0.1ppt drop to 6.4% for June, but we see downside (better) risk and look for an even larger drop to 6.3%."

"On wage growth, it looks like the ex-bonus number should remain unchanged at its record-low level of 0.7% Y/Y, while headline wage growth is likely to slip into negative territory at -0.1% Y/Y."

"However, this should be the low for the cycle as the funny business around last year’s change in tax rates finally works its way out of the data."

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