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May 9, 2013
Forex: AUD/JPY finishes slightly lower after narrow range day
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/JPY closed the day down 14 pips at 100.67. It was a quiet day for the pair which traded in a range between 101.02 and 100.40. Later in the session we will see the Aussie Employment Change release which is due out at 1:30GMT. Given the recent RBA rate cut, volatility could pick up depending on how the number compares with estimates.
According to Sean Callow of Westpac Global, “Australia’s April employment data dominates the local calendar (11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK). The headline jobs change has been even more volatile than usual this year, with much debate over changing survey samples etc. After Feb’s +74K and Mar’s -36K, consensus is for the seesaw to continue, with a headline +10K."
He went on to comment, “Westpac is only slightly more upbeat, on +15K. The range is -10K to +30K. AUD’s kneejerk response will be to the jobs total and the unemployment rate, with the latter probably the best guide to the overall state of the labour market. We look for an uptick in participation to nudge the unemployment rate to 5.7% (consensus is steady at 5.6%). This would be the highest jobless rate since Sep 2009 and would support Westpac’s call for another RBA rate cut in June.”
From a technical perspective, the pair remains trapped in the recent trading which between 99.90 and 102.50. These will be important levels to monitor, particularly on closing basis. A daily close above 102.50 could open the doors to 103.84 (high price from April 15th). On the other hand, a daily close below 99.90 could open the doors to further support down near 98.74 (low price from April 15th).
According to Sean Callow of Westpac Global, “Australia’s April employment data dominates the local calendar (11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK). The headline jobs change has been even more volatile than usual this year, with much debate over changing survey samples etc. After Feb’s +74K and Mar’s -36K, consensus is for the seesaw to continue, with a headline +10K."
He went on to comment, “Westpac is only slightly more upbeat, on +15K. The range is -10K to +30K. AUD’s kneejerk response will be to the jobs total and the unemployment rate, with the latter probably the best guide to the overall state of the labour market. We look for an uptick in participation to nudge the unemployment rate to 5.7% (consensus is steady at 5.6%). This would be the highest jobless rate since Sep 2009 and would support Westpac’s call for another RBA rate cut in June.”
From a technical perspective, the pair remains trapped in the recent trading which between 99.90 and 102.50. These will be important levels to monitor, particularly on closing basis. A daily close above 102.50 could open the doors to 103.84 (high price from April 15th). On the other hand, a daily close below 99.90 could open the doors to further support down near 98.74 (low price from April 15th).