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Forex Flash: Nearterm EUR/USD risks remain to downside – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank believes that the near term risks for EUR/USD remain on the downside.

She writes, “EUR/USD saw a tiny bounce yesterday, this had no impact on the chart. The intraday Elliott wave count is implying that rebound will terminate well ahead of 1.3518 - the 50% retracement of the recent sell off, our target remains 1.3270/56. This is the 16th Jan low and the 61.8% retracement, however there is potential for a slide back to the 1.3237 3 month support line.” She suspects that the market may well have topped, but key support remains at the 1.3164 7month up-trend, and a close below here is required to negate the move completely. She is currently short 1.3570 and has lowered the stop from 1.3715 to 1.3570 with a target at 1.3270.

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