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Forex Flash: Strong Chinese trade data likely reflects capital flows not fundamentals - Nomura

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Nomura economist, Zhiwei Zhang notes that strong trade data likely reflects capital flows rather than fundamentals.

He begins by noting that export growth rose to 14.7% y-o-y in April from 10% in March and import growth rose to 16.8% from 14.1%. The trade balance rose to a USD18.2bn surplus from a USD0.9bn deficit. He believes that the strong trade growth is not indicative of a growth recovery, but instead, it may be partly driven by the fact that April had two more working days than it did last year. Moreover, he feels that it is inconsistent with the weak trade data in Korea and Taiwan, which suggests it may reflect continued capital inflows in April. he writes, “On 6 May, the government announced it would tighten regulations on misreporting by importers and exporters, which indicates that some companies may have overstated their trade flows to circumvent capital controls and move capital into China.” He expects the policy actions announced by the government will be implemented in May and June, after which trade growth will likely slow.

Forex: NZD/USD breaks lower towards 0.8400 in uneven trading

The NZD/USD has witnessed a violent decline, in conjunction with sporadic pricing overnight and into the European session Wednesday. These moves come on the heels of action across the antipodean economies, characterized by a staunch volume increase in the NZD. Clearly the kiwi has been on the receiving end of a punishment that left the cross whipped, trading at calculated support.
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Forex Flash: RBNZ creates waves following overnight report – UBS

Official RBNZ statistics show that the central bank has been a net seller of New Zealand dollars over the past six month. Investors have been curious about this for a while, especially given this unusual activity began suddenly, and soon after Governor Wheeler took office in September.
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