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Forex: EUR/HUF retreats from highs, around 297.50

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Hungarian forint is picking up pace on Tuesday, after the Hungarian industrial production posted an annual contraction of 2.9% in March, decelerating the decline from February’s 5.3% drop.

“The prolonged rally may expose HUF and CDS to more downside should the EU find Hungary's constitutional amendments in breach of EU law s. We see EUR/HUF above 308 on fundamentals, but with a risk of liquidity distortions”, commented Cristian Maggio, Strategist at TD Securities.

As of writing, the pair is up 0.31% at 297.69 with the next resistance at 308.55 (high Mar.18) followed by 313.48 (high Jan.13 2012) and then 316.10 (high Jan.9 2012).
On the flip side, a breakdown of 296.40 (MA100d) would bring 294.69 (low May 3) and finally 293/25 (low Apr.25).

Forex Flash: USD/JPY likely to break out its bullish triangle soon – Commerzbank

As the USD/JPY continues to get ever closer to the 99.74/100.00 resistance area, Commerzbank analysts believe the pair is likely to break out of its bullish triangle soon: “This resistance zone is likely to cap once again, before eventually being breached”, wrote analyst Axel Rudolph. “Above here will see an extension to 101.27/67 (the 1999 and 2005 lows). This resistance area is expected to hold the initial test”, he continued, adding that the remains short term bullish while trading above the 96.99 late April low, while if slipped through, dips lower should find support at 96.71, the March high, and at 95.67, the mid-April low. “Key support remains trend and cloud support at 95.78/94.21 and we look for this to hold the downside and provoke recovery, if reached at all that is”, the Commerzbank analyst added.
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Forex: EUR/USD awaits German factory orders at 1.3070/90 range

The EUR/USD is mildly pushing upward ahead of the German factory orders indicator, as there is still hope in the market to see different figures than consensus: monthly contraction by -0.5% in March and year-on-year drop by -2.9%. The French industrial output not only contracted as predicted, but fell by -0.9% instead of the market consensus of -0.3%. For now, investors await the German data and keep the EUR/USD holding above 1.3070 and below 1.3090.
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