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May 7, 2013
Forex Flash: AUD/USD, torturous range at risk? - ANZ
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Ahead of the RBA rate decision, Tim Riddell, Head of Global Market Research at ANZ, shares his technical view on the AUD/USD, defining the trading activity as frustrating as the pair extends its 9th month of 1.01-1.06 range.
He notes, though: "The failure to sustain the early April push above 1.05, leaves AUD at risk of making a pronounced test of this range’s support, in the 1.0110-25 area, amidst background bias for a deeper pullback towards 0.9980 (61.8% of the range of the past year). However, by breaking below 1.0110, AUD would also be at risk of a more standard range flip, which suggests a potential fall to retest the spiked low of 0.9580 seen in early June 2012."
According to Tim, "a close above 1.0275 might temper the short-term risk of retesting range support, but a close above 1.0350 is needed to suggest that AUD will remain in the upper half of this now frustrating range (at least for now)."
He notes, though: "The failure to sustain the early April push above 1.05, leaves AUD at risk of making a pronounced test of this range’s support, in the 1.0110-25 area, amidst background bias for a deeper pullback towards 0.9980 (61.8% of the range of the past year). However, by breaking below 1.0110, AUD would also be at risk of a more standard range flip, which suggests a potential fall to retest the spiked low of 0.9580 seen in early June 2012."
According to Tim, "a close above 1.0275 might temper the short-term risk of retesting range support, but a close above 1.0350 is needed to suggest that AUD will remain in the upper half of this now frustrating range (at least for now)."