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May 7, 2013
Forex Flash: EUR/USD, any fall to 1.25-1.27 opportunity to build longs - ANZ
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Stepping back from near-term gyrations is needed to reinforce the medium-term technical profiles in the EUR/USD, argues Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ.
Tim notes: "Although anticipated 1.27-1.28 support held last month, rebounds have lacked impulse. The rebounds are considered to be correcting the fall from 1.3720, which is itself seen as a corrective pullback of the rally seen since crisis low of 1.2040."
In terms of price action in the coming month, Tim said: "Dips ought to hold above 1.2920-25 now and allow for a secondary squeeze towards 1.33; that should complete an inner counter move and then leave EUR/USD within the mid-ground of a likely range defining (1.25-1.35 ought to be the range into midyear) with a bias to redefine the recent range support."
Longer-term though, Mr. Riddell sees potential fall towards 1.25-1.27 area "as an opportunity to build long EUR positions for gains in H2 2013" he said, adding that "the style of any such slippage will therefore be closely monitored."
Tim notes: "Although anticipated 1.27-1.28 support held last month, rebounds have lacked impulse. The rebounds are considered to be correcting the fall from 1.3720, which is itself seen as a corrective pullback of the rally seen since crisis low of 1.2040."
In terms of price action in the coming month, Tim said: "Dips ought to hold above 1.2920-25 now and allow for a secondary squeeze towards 1.33; that should complete an inner counter move and then leave EUR/USD within the mid-ground of a likely range defining (1.25-1.35 ought to be the range into midyear) with a bias to redefine the recent range support."
Longer-term though, Mr. Riddell sees potential fall towards 1.25-1.27 area "as an opportunity to build long EUR positions for gains in H2 2013" he said, adding that "the style of any such slippage will therefore be closely monitored."