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Forex Flash: NAB business survey edges higher; RBA cut not until May - NAB

Today's NAB survey shows business confidence holding onto the gains made in December, while business conditions improved, says Alan Oster, Chief Economist at NAB.

Business confidence rose to +3 in January vs +2 in December, while business conditions also jumped to -2 vs -5. However, despite the improvement, "levels are still weak and the outlook is poor" Alan notes.

Mr. Olsen adds: "We still see the need for the RBA to cut the cash rate by 75 bps this year – but have delayed the timing. With the labour market still holding up and the RBA still looking for the impact of past cuts, we now expect the next rate cut to be in May (Capex data on 28 February could be critical to March decision and we still put the chance of the RBA cutting in March at around 60%). We have tentatively put additional rate cuts in June and November."

Forex: NZD/JPY stalls below 79.00

NZD/JPY is pushing again to the upside, last at 78.74, mostly on Yen weakness, as USD/JPY printed another fresh 33-month high shy of 94.50, while NZD/USD has bounced back to even for the week, last at 0.8358. The NZD/JPY cross is up +1.68% for the week so far from previous weekly close Friday, with Nikkei index opening higher above the 11400 points mark, up +2.26% for the day.
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Forex: USD/JPY above 94.00 fueled on Yen weakness

The USD/JPY is currently trading at 94.33, off fresh 33-month highs at 94.47, up +1.75% for the week so far in a single, day characterized by the Chinese New Year. Markets were closed yesterday in Japan and China, while today Hong-Kong and Singapore will keep on closed. Nikkei index opened to the upside above the 11400 points mark, higher by +2.37%.
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