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Forex Flash: Aus Retail sales eyed ahead of RBA tomorrow - NAB

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Today retail sales number in Australia will be a crucial release ahead of tomorrow's RBA monetary policy decision. According to NAB, "retail sales for March is set to fall by 1.0%, after the very strong growth of 1.2% and 1.3% in the previous two months."

NAB adds: "Our NAB Business Survey showed weak Business Conditions for retailing in March and Trading Conditions for Retailers plunged. But the median forecast for retail sales is a 0.1% gain, so a negative outcome would likely see markets raise their expectation of a rate cut tomorrow (currently priced at a 60% chance)."

The key question though, is, "whether the RBA has seen enough weakness recently or whether it wants to wait another month and see if the softness continues, before cutting again" NAB concludes.

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