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Forex: USD/JPY still above 98.05

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The USD/JPY topped its European morning trade at 98.25 high before pulling back, but remaining supported above 98.05. After peaking at 98.89 high in April 21, the pair has been under a corrective movement that reached as low as 97.02. Yesterday, the USD/JPY jumped to 98.39 and closed higher for the first time in 7 days. The market is edging higher today again, ahead of the US NFP report.

In regard to the US nonfarm payrolls, investors will be very serious about April data after a weak figure in March and this week’s disappointing ADP employment report. “Consensus forecasts at 145k drifted lower after the ADP report of 119k and our standing estimate of 162k looks admittedly toppish. Even if we are right, it would still represent a deceleration in job growth. The jobs number will be weaker than recent trends, even if odds favor a bounce higher in April”, wrote TD Securities analyst Alvin Pontoh, expecting the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 7.6%, (7.57%) but the risk is tilted higher.

“Monitor the hourly resistance at 98.33, as a decisive break would call for a move at 99.25 (bullish flag). A key resistance is at 99.94. An hourly support lies at 97.88 (intraday low)”, wrote MIG Bank analysts Bijoy Kar and Luc Luyet.

Forex Flash: NFP figures could portend monthly fallout for USD – BTMU

The direction of the dollar will of course be determined by the non-farm payrolls report, released today. According to the BTMU Research Team, “The 119k gain in the ADP along with all the other variables we use in our NFP model have given us an estimate for today of 104k.”
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