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Forex Flash: ECB expected to cut rate by 25bp today and to suggest more in June – TD Securities

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Market focus for today is the ECB interest rate decision, and while TD Securities analysts expect a 25bps refi rate cut, and this seems to have been well telegraphed by Draghi suggesting it was data dependent at last month’s press conference, it is still not a slam dunk decision: “We remain very uncomfortable, given when all is said and done, it will likely mean little for the economy so the ECB is actively looking for other options, which makes handicapping market reactions difficult”, wrote analyst Alvin Pontoh, adding that if the rate cut can improve sentiment, or via reduced LTRO funding costs create incentives to buy peripheral debt, “then we could see a peripheral rally, but core rates risk moving higher if there is no suggestion of a deposit rate cut or more action to come”.

Pontoh sees reducing haircuts on collateral as possible, but a broad move across collateral seems unlikely. “There has been talk of targeting via this method or something new to get liquidity and credit support to SMEs, but as in the UK, we question the effectiveness”, he continued, expecting some sort of easing (the 25bps refi rate cut) while leaving a message that more easing in June is likely.

Forex Flash: GBP/USD failure at 1.5600/03 favored - Commerzbank

The GBP/USD has rallied to the top of its short term channel, the approximate location of the 50% retracement at 1.5600/03, and is holding there: “We favor failure here. However the intraday charts are giving conflicting signals and above 1.5603 we would allow for one more push higher to 1.5761/82 (200 day ma and 61.8% retracement, where we would expect to see failure)”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, pointing to the loss of the 1.5412 mid April peak as needed to alleviate immediate upside pressure and signal a slide back to the 1.5274 uptrend. “Failure here is needed to confirm the idea that the market has resumed its down move”, she added, suggesting losses to 1.5028 (the 20th March low) in a break below.
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Forex: USD/JPY trading negatively at 97.24/26

The USD/JPY has refused to break out of its consolidation Thursday, as the pair seems unable to break in either direction during the palpable buildup to the ECB rate decision later today. Following a grim intraweek run, the cross now trades negatively at 97.24/26, incurring a loss of -0.14% during European trading.
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