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Forex Flash: Take a vacation - Nomura

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Saeed Amen of Nomura has taken a look at currency moves during local holidays.

He begins by noting that in the past he has discussed currency moves during local market holidays, and todau he has extended that analysis to more USD crosses including EM, as well as in the G10. He finds that generally local currencies strengthen during their local market holidays against USD. He writes, “When there are US-only holidays, USD strengthens broadly. We have created both G10 and EM trading baskets that trade in this holiday behaviour, which have risk-adjusted returns of 0.73 (since 1990) and 0.64 (since 2002) exclusive of transaction costs.”

Forex Flash: EUR/USD with scope to retest key resistance at 1.3200/25 – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts noted that the EUR/USD has eroded the 2013 resistance line: “This has introduced scope to retest the key resistance which remains the 1.3200/25 recent high and 50% retracement”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, expecting it to hold the topside. “Further upside probes remain viable while we continue to hold above the 1.3030 short term uptrend. The rally yesterday felt quite directional and the intraday charts are giving conflicting signals - .should 1.3225 be eroded this would introduce scope to 1.3340, the 61.8% retracement of the move seen this year”, she continued, adding that a slide back below 1.3030 is needed to alleviate immediate upside pressure for a slide to 1.2964/54 (24th April low and the 200 day ma). If the pair fails there, 1.2839 (78.6% retracement of the move up in April then the 1.2740 recent low) will be the next target.
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Forex: AUD/USD in lows after RBA data

The Aussie dollar is printing fresh lows in the area of 1.0350/55 on Wednesday, after the RBA Commodity Index SDR posted an annual contraction of 6.5% in April, bettering March’s drop of -7.5%...
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