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Forex Flash: What can we expect of EUR/USD? – UBS and Commerzbank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The single currency is trading on the back foot on Tuesday, dragged lower by softer than expected German retail sales and the contraction of the Spanish GDP. The cross left session highs above 1.3120 overnight to fall to sub 1.3070 levels after the poor data.

G.Yu and G.Berry, Strategists at UBS confirm the neutral outlook on the cross, arguing “There is a critical resistance at 1.3202 and then 1.3232. Support is at 1.3021 ahead of 1.2920 – a breach here would be a bearish development”.

After the recent climb to the area od 1.3120, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, commented, “Ideally we would like to see failure here however acknowledge that key resistance is the 1.3225 50% retracement. While capped here our negative bias remains”.

Forex Flash: German unemployment and EMU HICP forecast – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts expect the German unemployment rate to remain at 6.9% with unemployment rising by 2k in April: “This would be an improvement over +13k in March and generally in line with the PMI details suggesting manufacturing employment is trending roughly flat”, wrote analyst Annette Beacher. In regard to the April Eurozone Flash HICP figure, Beacher expects a fall from 1.7% y/y to 1.6%, “but Spanish and German data released yesterday present further downside”.
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