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Forex: AUD/USD retreats to 1.0350

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - After hitting fresh session highs around 1.0370, the Aussie dollar has initiated a correction lower to the current levels in the vicinity of 1.0350, as risk aversion is creeping back to the markets.

“The 0.75% rise in the AUD/USD in the past 24 hours puts the pair firmly back inside the 1.02-1.06 range and where we expect it to remain for the time, and regardless of whether or not the RBA decides to cut rates as early as next Tuesday”, commented the research team at NAB.

At the moment the pair is up 0.03% at 1.0353 with the next resistance at 1.0379 (MA21d) ahead of 1.0399 (high Apr.16) and then 1.0448 (high Apr.15).
On the downside, a breach of 1.0302 (MA10d) would aim for 1.0290 (hourly high/low Apr.29) and finally 1.0263 (low Apr.26).

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Having rallied higher towards the 1.3113 2013 resistance line, Commerzbank analysts would like to see failure there, but acknowledge that key resistance is the 1.3225 50% retracement, and while capped here their negative bias remains and attention is on the 1.2959 200 day ma. “We should see failure shortly and a slide to 1.2839, the 78.6% retracement of the move up in April. This is the last defense for the 1.2740 recent low”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, pointing to key support at 1.2679/61(61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-to-January rise and the November 2012 low).
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TD Securities analysts expect the German unemployment rate to remain at 6.9% with unemployment rising by 2k in April: “This would be an improvement over +13k in March and generally in line with the PMI details suggesting manufacturing employment is trending roughly flat”, wrote analyst Annette Beacher. In regard to the April Eurozone Flash HICP figure, Beacher expects a fall from 1.7% y/y to 1.6%, “but Spanish and German data released yesterday present further downside”.
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