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Forex: AUD/NZD struggling to get above 1.21, off fresh 3.5-year lows

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - AUD/NZD is last at 1.2097, off recent session highs at 1.2119, printed on the back of Kiwi weakness, following worse than expected Building consents in New Zealand, falling -9.1% m/m. The cross is about flat for the week, recovering from Friday's fresh 3.5-year lows at 1.2050, lowest seen since late 2009.

According to some analysts, the cross is losing some downwards momentum: “Bears appear to be losing their strength but we need a daily close above the Feb low at 1.215 to give us full confidence in this counter-trend trade,” analysts at IFR say, having taken a long position at 1.2070 with a 1.2350 target, and 1.1930 stop loss.

Immediate support to the downside for AUD/NZD lies at recent weekly lows 1.2060, followed by Friday's fresh 3.5-year lows at 1.2046, and April 2009 lows at 1.2026. To the upside, closest resistance shows at recent session highs/Wednesday's lows 1.2110/19, followed by Monday's early weekly/Thurday's highs at 1.2153/8, and April 17/18 lows at 1.2175.

EUR/AUD – More consolidation before the next leg up?

The EUR/AUD finished the day down 14 pips at 1.2655. Over the last 10 days the pair has been consolidating in what appears to be a “bull flag” continuation pattern. Economic data in the upcoming European session will feature German Retail Sales, German Unemployment Change, and Spanish GDP.
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Forex Flash: Short term bullish risks on the rise for AUD/USD - JPMorgan

The short term upside risks for both AUD/USD and NZD/USD have increased but still within the context of the medium term consolidations, notes Niall O'Connor, FX strategist at JPMorgan.
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