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Forex Flash: CTFC data shows speculative long EUR positions at 2011 highs – Societe Generale

Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes that CFTC data for last week show IMM long Euro speculative positions at their highest levels since the summer of 2011, even if they are not, in absolute terms, all that huge.

He writes, “I’m not sure, that these figures tell me much other than the return to net longs opened the way for a correction last week, and the contrast with large net shorts in GBP and JPY (both bounced) is striking. But really big net longs in AUD and NZD do point to vulnerability to any signs of economic weakness. A fall in Australian home loans and investment spending is hardly ‘breaking news’ but enough to make short AUD/USD look like a good trade for this week from these levels.”

Forex Flash: Political update in Italy – Deutsche Bank

Over the weekend, in Italy the embargo on the publication of opinion polls ahead of upcoming elections began on Saturday. An average of polls calculated by Reuters just prior to the blackout showed the centre-left's Bersani on 34.7%, or 5.7 points ahead of Berlusconi. The anti-establishment Five-Star Movement was running third on 16%, with Monti's centrists trailing on 13.6%.
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Forex: USD/JPY rallies on European session, above 93.00

After an Asian session trading sideways, the USD/JPY was lifted from 92.50 area back to the 93.00 mark, and then to 93.40, for now. European money is allowing a move that the pair wasn't able to make during Asian hours as Japan is closed for National Foundation Day.
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