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US Initial Jobless Claims Preview: The most severe shock to the labor market history

The Department of Labor will issue its initial jobless claims for the week of March 20 on Thursday March 26 at 12:30 GMT. Joseph Trevisani, an analyst at FXStreet, shares his forecast.

Key quotes

“Initial claims are expected to rise to 1,000,000 from 281,000 the prior week. The range of the estimates is extraordinarily wide from 1 million to 4 million.” 

“It may be one of the steepest recessions since the Depression in terms of output and certainly in job losses but it could also be one of the shortest.”

“If the virus is contained in a month the economy could come roaring back. If it takes 12 weeks or longer and the economy requires a careful and measured reopening, the recession could linger through the end of the year.”


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