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US: Initial jobless claims to hit a record high of 2.25 million – Goldman Sachs

The Goldman Sachs analysts project a record high in the US jobless claims for the week of March 15-21, given the coronavirus outbreak led disruption in the domestic labor market.

Key quotes

“In today's note we compile anecdotes from recent press reports and company announcements to estimate the magnitudes of the increase in layoffs and decline in consumer spending due to the virus. 

These data points offer an especially timely read on the slowdown in activity so far. 

State-level anecdotes point to an unprecedented surge in layoffs this week. These anecdotes suggest that the next jobless claims report covering the week of March 15-21 will show that initial claims rose to roughly 2% million, the largest increase in initial jobless claims and the highest level on record. 

Anecdotes from a wide range of sectors also suggest an unprecedented decline in revenues across many industries. Consumer spending on sports and entertainment, hotels, restaurants, and public transportation in particular have already dropped dramatically.”

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