When is the Aussie jobs report and how could it affect AUD/USD?
February month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 00:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders.
While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is all set to announce measures to combat coronavirus at 03:30 GMT, investors will pay close attention to the details to forecast the size of the stimulus.
Market consensus favors Employment Change to decline to 10.0K from 13.5K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely to remain unchanged at 5.3%. Also, no change is anticipated in 66.10% Participation Rate.
Westpac stays modestly pessimistic ahead of the release as their analysts say,
Westpac expects that jobs growth was subdued in February, with 7k new jobs created. This implies that the unemployment rate will hold at 5.3%. When the survey was conducted, COVID-19 was only beginning to spread out of China, and most businesses hoped the shock would be fleeting. While there will be an impact on education, tourism and entertainment activity in February, the most pronounced effect should be on hours worked.
TD Securities follow the suit while saying,
For the Feb Employment report, we are looking for a 5k increase and with the participation rate expected to remain at 66.1%, the unemployment rate should tick higher to 5.4%. A number worse than 5.4% is likely to increase market chatter of the RBA initiating QE as early as April, but a lot will depend on how aggressive Fed policy is and coronavirus developments.
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
Although the presence of the RBA’s likely action after the data is diming the importance of the key jobs report, coronavirus can keep pushing the nation to flash worrisome figures. As a result, the AUD/USD pair is more likely to extend its south-run than to recover, except for intermediate bounce, even if the data comes out as positively surprising.
Technically, only if the buyers manage to provide a daily closing beyond 0.6325, near the weekly top, the pair could extend the recovery gains, else expectations of its further declines to the year 2003 low near 0.5670 can’t be ruled out.
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About the Employment Change
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).