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AUD/USD drops further towards 0.6100 after RBA minutes

  • AUD/USD remains on the back foot after the RBA favored Monday’s announcement.
  • The US House of Representatives passes coronavirus relief bill, Senate will vote to make it a law.
  • Thursday becomes the key day including Aussie jobs report and RBA.

AUD/USD fails to hold onto the earlier gains after the RBA minutes while taking rounds to 0.6110, -0.15%, during the Asian session on Tuesday. The minutes statement showed the readiness on the part of the RBA policymakers to act and stay in contact while also indicating a move towards the bond purchases rather than a further rate cut.

Read: RBA Minutes: The Board was prepared to ease monetary policy further to support the Australian economy

Even so, the Aussie pair showed less reaction to the event as the clues of the next RBA moves were already out and loud while risk-tone remains as the key catalysts amid the coronavirus (COVID-19) fears.

The risk-tone recovers amid the US diplomats’ action to get coronavirus relief bill rolled out. While the House of Representatives has already passed President Donald Trump-backed plan, Senate members have earlier suggested some changes and hence Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is struggling to get the deal.

Elsewhere, the Philippines recently terminated trading of Forex and Bond while Mainland China's total number of confirmed coronavirus cases hit 80,881 as of end-March 16.

The recent weakness in Chinese data, as well as global policymakers’ rush to ward off the negative implications of the coronavirus (COVID-19), portrayed a day of risk aversion on Monday.

That said, the US 10-year treasury yields bounce off 22 basis points (bps) to 0.745% while S&P 500 Futures register 1.26% gains to 2,435 by the press time. However, Japan’s NIKKEI is in the red by 2.2% to 1,6620.

Unless getting a clear solution of the pandemic, the Aussie is less likely to be recovered. As a result, the Westpac might have concluded, “Fragile industrial commodities and travel bans threaten each of Australia's top 5 exports (coal, iron ore, LNG, education, tourism), pointing to a collapse in the trade surplus starting in the Feb data. The extent and timing of likely RBA easing is a swing factor near term but the impact on Australia's economy will be muted.”

Investors will now await Thursday’s big moves in the Aussie due to the monthly employment data and RBA’s moves towards further taming the COVID-19 damages. In the meantime, any surprise moves from the US or the Aussie as well as updates concerning the virus cold entertain short-term traders.

Technical Analysis

The risks of witnessing fresh 11-year low, around 0.6000, increases if the pair stays weak below the recent bottom, close to 0.6100. Meanwhile, the monthly support-turned-resistance around 0.6185 acts as the immediate upside barrier.

 

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