US NFP Preview: 6 Major Banks expectations for February payrolls report
Today, the US jobs report for February is due to be reported at 13.30 GMT, and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 6 major banks, regarding the upcoming employment data. Most of the economists and researchers are expecting US NFP to post-reading in between 170-200k in February, while the consensus is +175k reading. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.6% for the month.
“Based on a nine-variable model, non-farm payrolls ought to increase by an average of ~120k/month vs the latest rise of 225k in January. Consensus is looking for a 190k gain, but we would take the under.”
“Payrolls probably slowed significantly after a mild-weather-assisted surge in January. The weather was milder than usual in February as well, but not to the same degree as in January. Our 170K forecast allows for a 7K boost from temporary hiring for the 2020 census, consistent with weekly data released by the Census Bureau.”
“February payrolls are expected to increase by 180k. Although employment growth should slow over 2020, this softening should be gradual. In light of this, the February unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 3.5%. February hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.2%mth, and remain capped at roughly 3.0%yr.”
“We get the US jobs report for February today. Judging from the latest ADP and ISM signals, we expect to see a decent report with ongoing healthy job creation.”
“While today’s payrolls report would usually be the focal point for markets, for now, the data is very much playing second/third/insert as necessary fiddle to what is going on with the coronavirus given that it’s all too backward-looking. So it’s likely markets will somewhat look beyond what the data shows however for completeness the consensus for today is 175k following a 225k print last month. This should be enough to keep the unemployment rate at 3.6% while average hourly earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom with the annual rate at +3.0% YoY.
“Following a better-than-expected gain to start the year, we look for the pace of nonfarm hiring to remain strong in February, with employers adding 200,000 jobs.”