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US Dollar Index looks for direction near 97.30

  • DXY struggles to advance further north of the 97.40 region.
  • US 10-year yields regained the 1.0% mark following the sharp sell off.
  • Initial Claims, Factory Orders next of relevance in the calendar.

The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is looking for direction in the 97.40/30 band in the second half of the week.

US Dollar Index focused on coronavirus, data

The index is down smalls at the time of writing, partially reversing Wednesday’s recovery to the 97.60 zone, where some resistance appears to have turned up.

The improved mood around the buck was sustained by the better-than-expected results from the US ISM Non-Manufacturing, the recent performance of Democrat candidate J.Biden and the rebound in yields of the US 10-year note back above the 1.0% barrier.

Looking at the broader picture, headlines from the COVID-19 are expected to remain in centre stage in the near-term along with potential easing measures from major central banks. It is worth recalling that the RBA, the Fed and the BoC reduced their policy rates so far this week, all aimed to counteract the negative effects of the coronavirus on the domestic economies.

Later in the US docket, usual weekly Claims are due seconded by Factory Orders, Non-farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

What to look for around USD

The index has recovered some ground lost after dropping to multi-week lows in the sub-97.00 area on Tuesday. Following the breach of the 200-day SMA (today at 97.82), the outlook on the dollar has now shifted to bearish and further pullbacks should not be ruled out. In the meantime, developments from the coronavirus continue to drive the sentiment in the global markets, while investors’ attention is now on the upcoming FOMC meeting (March 17-18) and the probability of extra easing after Tuesday’s exceptional 50 bps interest rate cut.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

At the moment, the index is losing 0.02% at 97.35 and faces the next support at 96.98 (weekly/monthly low Mar.2) seconded by 96.74 (low Dec.12 2019) and then 96.53 (monthly low Dec.31 2019). On the upside, a break above 97.82 (200-day SMA) would aim for 98.54 (monthly high Nov.29 2019) and finally 99.09 (23.6% Fibo retracement of the 2020 rally).

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