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Forex Flash: What does the EUR/USD have to offer? – BTMU, UBS and Commerzbank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The shared currency is giving away more pips and navigating session lows below the key level at 1.3000 ahead of the German IFO due later, as sentiment surrounding the euro continues to wane.

“We have always had a rate cut pencilled, but had expected a move in June, in line with the release of the next ECB forecasts, or in July. However, the steady stream of rhetoric hinting at the scope for easing makes us now believe that the greatest probability of a rate cut is now at the May meeting”, suggested Derek Halpenny, Head of Global Markets Research at BTMU.

Strategist Syed M.Mohi-uddin at UBS confirms the bank’s neutral view on the cross, adding, “Having tested support at 1.2974, there’s scope for a move to next support at 1.2920, a break below which would be a bearish development, triggering deeper sell-off to 1.2746. Resistance is at 1.3084 ahead of 1.3202”.

In light of yesterday’s decline of the cross, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, commented, “this leaves the market on the defensive and we look for losses through the 1.2941 200 day ma. While we would allow for the possibility for this to hold the initial test, we should then see failure and a slide to 1.2839, the 78.6% retracement of the move up in April”.

Forex: AUD/NZD tumbles to daily low at 1.2117/24

The AUD/NZD plummeted overnight and into the Wednesday session as news out of Australia and New Zealand dominated the headlines. Technically speaking, the pair is in lousy shape, having entrenched itself in negative territory and establishing session lows in these moments at 1.2117/24.
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Forex Flash: EUR/USD to eventually fail below 1.2941 towards 1.2839 – Commerzbank

Having sold off to the 50% retracement support at 1.2971, Commerzbank analysts were left on the defensive, looking for losses through the 1.2941 200 day moving average. “While we would allow for the possibility for this to hold the initial test, we should then see failure and a slide to 1.2839, the 78.6% retracement of the move up in April. This is the last defense for the 1.2740 recent low”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, pointing to key support at 1.2679/61 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-to-January rise and the November 2012 low). “We continue to view the recent failure ahead of the 1.3225/50% retracement as an interim peak”, Jones wrote, suggesting initial resistance at the 55 day ma at 1.3079.
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