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Gold: Bulls charge to VPOC, opens prospects of a 23.6% Fib retracement

  • Gold shoots to the VPOC of the recent range, a pullback could be in order despite Fed emergency cut.
  • With per-trader positioning still overextended, a reversal in ETF holdings could continue to add pressure on gold prices.

Gold prices are back to the current range's point of control with a burst to life from the Federal Reserve's emergency rate cut of 50 basis points sending the yellow metal over 3.65% higher and US yields to record lows. At the time of writing, gold stands at $1,645.52 having travelled between a range of $1,585.30 and $1,649.33.

In an emergency meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points. This was followed by a press conference where Fed's chair, Jerome Powell, said the "outbreak has prompted significant moves in financial markets." Powell added, "In the weeks and months ahead we will continue to closely monitor developments and will act appropriately to support the economy." 

As one would expect, US yields continue to plummet and the Fed funds rate is now in the 1-1.25% range but 2-year yields have fallen by 13 basis points to 0.774%, suggesting more is coming. This makes gold's safe-haven bid and returns appealing to investors as the coronavirus continues to play havoc elsewhere –  for instance, following an initial spike, the S&P 500 is back into negative territory today. 

Gold higher for 2020

TD Securities expects the Fed to "cut in March and April, which will continue to suppress global real-rates amid an asymmetric Fed reaction function — a theme that will continue to drive precious metals higher into 2020". 

Gold levels

The analysts at TD also warned, however, "With per-trader positioning still overextended, a reversal in ETF holdings could continue to add pressure on gold prices." From a technical perspective, golds volume point of control of the Feb 24th highs to late Feb lows is located at $1,647 and could be ripe for a shortlived downside correction opportunity. The 23.6% Fibo is located at $1,628.61 as the edge of the volume value area of the same range. This is an old resistance of May - Aug 2012 and a support of Dec 2012-Jan 2013 which ultimately gave way to a prolonged downtrend into 2016 lows. More recently, it has acted as a support on the 25th and 26h Feb.


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