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Forex Flash: Expecting a cut in ECB rates for May/June - RBS

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - “We did not (and still do not) believe that a cut in the main refinancing rate will do much good, but the tone of commentary by members of the Governing Council since the last meeting has led us to change our call,” analysts Richard Barwell and Xinying Chen at RBS say, adding: “We now think the Council will cut the refi rate and although it is a close call, we think that cut comes in May; failing that it should arrive in June.”

“Last month we argued that the rate cut debate was on a knife edge, but stuck with our forecast for rates on hold on the basis that the outlook could improve, or the Council could fashion an effective non-standard tool,” they expand, noting: “We think that was the wrong call.”

“We are now expecting a cut in the main refinancing rate, largely in response to commentary by members of the Governing Council since the April meeting, which suggests to us that the ECB has reached the point where it has to do something,” Richard and Xinying conclude.

Forex: GBP/USD still forming possible “bear flag” on daily chart

The GBP/USD remains in a narrow range during Asia trade, currently flat on the session at 1.5236. Economic data out of the UK is light in the coming session, with Mortgage Approvals due out at 8:30 GMT. The US session will also be fairly quiet with Durable Goods do out at 12:30GMT.
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Forex Flash: Buy USD/THB targeting 29.70 - ANZ

After the Thai baht outpaced all its competitors in the Asian region year-to-date, in view of Khoon Goh, Senior FX Strategist at ANZ, "the strength goes well beyond fundamentals and is at risk of a corrective move."
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