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Australia: RBA to take it easy on the next rate cut – ANZ

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has updated its forecast for the economy of the oceanic country as analysts at ANZ Research are still thinking on a rate cut in April. AUD/USD continues its downtrend started this year.

Key quotes

“The RBA sees growth getting back to around 3% in 2021. In the near-term, GDP growth is expected to be lower than previously forecast, reflecting the impacts of the coronavirus and the bushfires.” 

“The RBA forecast that the unemployment rate would decline sooner rather than later, yet would still only reach 4.8% by mid-2022, above the estimated NAIRU of 4.5%.”

“We expect the unemployment rate to drift higher, as employment growth slows before the labour market restrengthens.” 

“We have stuck with our April rate cut call, but the risk is that the next cut comes later.” 

“The RBA now expects H1 2020 headline inflation to be softer than it previously forecast, revising down to 1¾% from 2%.”

 

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