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Forex Flash: Kiwi downside favored amidst mounting risk? – BNZ

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Following the China data, attention shifted to European PMIs Tuesday. However, “as seen in the recent price action, market positioning means the NZD is particularly vulnerable to any nasty surprises on global growth this week – the balance of risks favors the downside.” notes the BNZ Research Team.

Still, “absent a full blown equity market meltdown, we think support in the 0.8250/0.8300 window will contain any near-term pull-backs in NZD/USD. Notable in this regard, our new short-term valuation model suggests current NZD/USD ‘fundamentals’ are equivalent to a short-term ‘fair-value’ range of 0.8450-0.8850.” the team adds.

Our analysis suggests the Fed’s quantitative easing policies are currently adding around 10 cents onto this ‘fair-value range.

Forex: EUR/JPY erasing daily losses to 129.54

Brought down on Tuesday by both Yen strength on profit taking from Monday’s high at 130.67 and EUR weakness in reaction to the disappointing flash PMI report in Germany, the EUR/JPY fell to as low at 127.88 on the European session and bouncing movement was formed in anticipation of the NY session, as investors saw improving yields on Italy and Spain debt, European equities rise and the Yen weakens. So far, the cross peaked at 129.60 session high as the market finds resistance at yesterday’s close of 129.54.
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Forex: CAD/JPY soars into the US session

Having sold off overnight and through the European session, CAD/JPY found support and has since reversed to post daily highs.
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