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When is the monthly Canadian GDP report and how could it affect USD/CAD?

Canadian monthly GDP overview

Friday's economic docket highlights the release of monthly Canadian GDP growth figures for November, scheduled to be published at 13:30 GMT by Statistics Canada. Consensus estimates point to flat reading for the reported month as compared to a 0.1% contraction seen in October.

As analysts at TDS explained: “Transitory factors will have offsetting impacts, reflecting a rebound in auto production, after the UAW disrupted supply chains the prior month, alongside a headwind from the impact of cold weather and the CN strikes. Unchanged GDP would leave Q4 tracking near the BoC's latest projections (0.3%).”

How could it affect USD/CAD?

Ahead of the important release, the pair was seen building on its recent positive momentum and climbed to fresh seven-week tops – around mid-1.3200s. Bulls might now be eyeing for some follow-through buying above the very important 200-day SMA. A softer reading or even a print in line with consensus estimates might be enough to inspire bullish traders and set the stage for a move towards the 1.3265-70 supply zone en-route the 1.3300 round-figure mark.

Conversely, a stronger-than-expected reading might trigger some long-unwinding trade and drag the pair back below the 1.3200 level. Some follow-through weakness might still be seen as a buying opportunity and should help limit the downside near 100-day SMA – around the 1.3180 region.

Key Notes

   •    USD/CAD moves back closer to multi-week tops/200-DMA

   •    Canadian Nov. GDP will be in focus on Friday – TDS

   •    USD/CAD Analysis: bullish signals

About monthly Canadian GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Canada. The GDP is considered a broad measure of Canadian economic activity and health. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the CAD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CAD.

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