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Just when things were looking up - ANZ

analysts at ANZ explained that they will be releasing our latest Quarterly Economic Outlook later this morning, but the forecasts could be out of date rather quickly.

Key quotes

"There are a few key channels by which NZ will definitely be affected by the new coronavirus. China has cancelled tour-group bookings; these account for around a third of NZ tourist arrivals from that country.

Reduced dining out in China will lower demand for NZ food, which tends to sit at the luxury end of the market where the food service channel is very important. This presents downside risk to both meat and dairy prices in the near term.

And the NZD will likely be under pressure. These are the ‘knowns’. Beyond this, given it appears people are infectious before they are diagnosable, it seems likely the virus will rapidly become widespread, impacting economic activity (especially tourism) on a global scale. If it gets established in NZ that’s another ballgame.

This could be a game changer for not just global markets but the global economy. Its likely scale and impact are highly uncertain, but the market’s alarm looks justified.


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