UK retail sales and US industrial production amongst market movers today – Danske Bank
According to analysts at Danske Bank, beyond Chinese data out overnight, the global calendar is light today and in the US, we get industrial production data for December, which will be interesting given the weakness in the ISM manufacturing.
“We also get preliminary US consumer confidence in January from the University of Michigan, which we expect to remain at elevated levels. Indeed, the weekly consumer confidence index from Bloomberg released yesterday rose to the highest level since 2000, supporting our view that the US expansion will continue and that private consumption remains the main growth driver. From a Fed perspective, the most interesting part is long-term inflation expectations, which in December dropped to a new record-low of 2.2% y/y - this remains an issue for the Fed.”
“In the euro area, we get final HICP inflation data for December.”
“In the UK, focus is on December retail sales, which is usually not a number we pay too much attention too, but given the focus on whether the Bank of England will cut or not, it should be watched today. Markets have priced in a 60% probability of a rate cut at the 30 January meeting, which seems fair, in our view.”