US: Retail sales and jobless claims in focus – TDS

According to analysts at TD Securities, the seasonally adjusting retail sales is challenging around year-end, but sales probably rose solidly and they are forecasting is up 0.5% MoM even with a drop in autos.

Key Quotes

“Reports on holiday shopping were generally positive, albeit with department stores continuing to lose market share to nonstore retailers. We also forecast sales in the control group to have advanced at a similarly firm 0.5% m/m.”

“Separately, we look for the Philly Fed index to have recovered partially to 6 in January following its 6pt drop to 2.4 in December. We expect the improvement in sentiment to be positively influenced by the US-China trade deal.”

“Lastly, we look for initial jobless claims to print a moderate 218k for the week of Jan 11, marginally up from 214k in the week prior.”