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Canada: Focus on BoC’s Business Outlook Survey – TDS

According to analysts at TD Securities, the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey (BOS) will be watched for any signs of near-term malaise following the recent deterioration in economic data surprises and small business sentiment, which currently sits at the second lowest level since 2016.

Key Quotes

“Despite recent softness in economic data, consensus GDP expectations have been revised higher in five of the last six months, which should lend support to expectations for sales growth.”

“Elsewhere, the pickup in Q3 investment should translate into some relief capacity-related indicators and the recent moderation in employment data suggests an easing of labour shortages from the previous survey. Overall, this may result in a modest pullback for the aggregate BOS indicator, but we do not expect a retest of the Q1 lows.”

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