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US markets to remain well supported by Fed liquidity – Nordea

Nordea Markets analysts point out that the US Fed will not only decide on a new T-bill purchase pace this week (anything else than 60bn will be a big surprise), it will also unveil a new schedule for its repo market operations.

Key Quotes

“A slight “tapering” of the ON repo offering can’t be ruled out, while negative for risk appetite it shouldn’t really matter given its limited usage.”

“It’s also worth noting that the seasonality in the US Treasury’s crisis account (the TGA) suggests somewhat less liquidity support next week, but that tax refunds will boost liquidity substantially in February.”

In the bigger picture, while the Fed’s balance sheet won’t grow as quickly in Q1, 2020 as it did towards the end of 2019 (at an annualized pace of more than 1.2 trillion September to December), it will still grow at a solid pace –underpinning the market’s current “QE psychology”.”

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