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US: Surprise coming in December NFP – Westpac

According to analysts at Westpac, there is plenty of room for surprise as ever in the US employment report after Non-farm payrolls surged 266k in Nov, the strongest reading since Jan 2019, while the unemployment rate slipped back to 3.5%.

Key Quotes

“The median forecast for NFP is 160k, with the +/- 1 standard deviation range 146k to 185k (Bloomberg survey). The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.5%, while average hourly earnings are seen up 0.3%mth, 3.1%yr. The post-GFC peak in wages growth was 3.4%yr in Feb 2019.”

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