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AUD/JPY technical analysis: Bear flag breakdown on hourly chart

  • AUD/JPY's hourly chart shows a bear flag breakdown, a bearish continuation pattern. 
  • The pair risks falling to 72.30 in the next day or two amid increasing dovish RBA expectations. 

AUD/JPY is looking south with the hourly chart reporting a bear flag breakdown. 

That pattern indicates the sell-off from Sept. 18's high near 74.20 has resumed and the pair could drop to 72.30 (target as per the measured move method). 

The bearish case would weaken if the pair rises above 73.50 (Flag's high), although, as of now, that looks unlikely, as the probability of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting rates by 25 basis points in October has increased sharply in the last 24 hours. 

Notably, the National Bank of Australia (NAB), Commonwealth Bank, National Bank of Australia (NAB) have joined Westpac in predicting a rate cut in October. Prior to Thursday's dismal Aussie jobs report, most banks excluding Westpac were predicting a rate cut in November. 

Hourly chart

Trend: Bearish

Technical levels

 

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