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USD/CHF: Modestly flat around 0.9850 despite 7-month high Swiss trade surplus

  • USD/CHF traders show less reaction to the Swiss trade balance that rose to a seven-month high.
  • Active risk-off mood and the greenback weakness also favor the pair sellers.

Despite witnessing an increase in monthly Swiss trade balance data, USD/CHF remains modestly flat at 0.9850 ahead of the European open on Thursday.

As per the Federal Customs Administration office of Switzerland, June month Trade Balance came in as 4,096 million versus 3,210 million forecast and 3,398 million prior (revised). It was further mentioned that exports weakened from 21,485 million to 0,454 million whereas imports also fell to 16,359 million from 18,074 million.

The quote failed to extend the previous recovery on Wednesday mainly due to sluggish prints of the US housing market numbers and worries concerning the US economic slowdown because of the US-China trade problems, as revealed by the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book.

Given the fact that the Swiss Franc (CHF) is often used for risk safety, trade tussles between the US and China, coupled with geopolitical tension surrounding the US and some of the key Middle East members, are positive to Switzerland’s currency. The same catalyst has also been playing its role since late-Wednesday and might keep the spotlight for a bit more time.

On the economic calendar, the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended on July 12, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data fr the current month and Fedspeak will be observed for fresh direction. While Jobless Claims may rise to 216K from 209K, the manufacturing gauge could improve to 5.0 from 0.3 previous.

Technical Analysis

3-week old support-line joins 21-day simple moving average (SMA) to highlight 0.9843/50 area for sellers, a break of which can fetch prices to mid-month low near 0.9815 and then to 0.9800 round-figure. On the contrary, pair’s rise beyond a downward-sloping trend-line since June 19, at 0.9923 can please buyers with current month high of 0.9952 and June month tops surrounding 1.0016.

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