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Fed speak in the limelight today – TDS

Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities, points out that coming off the heels of the June FOMC meeting, both Chair Powell and Vice Chair Williams will speak today.

Key Quotes

“We do not expect a significant deviation from last Wednesday's script, but given the notable shift in the Fed's tune and dot plot, we will be looking for a better understanding of the reaction function which has shifted in favor of acquiescing to market pricing and broad "uncertainty" rather than data dependence.”

“In line with this, there may be clues as to whether how legit a 50bp cut in July could be. With this in mind, and month-end noise aside, FX markets should remain fixated on USD downside in the coming weeks. To this end, we think this will keep the reserve currencies trading on their front foot; as we noted last week, we think USDJPY remains on a course correction path lower (with 105 in mind) as more credence should be placed on rate spread dynamics than positive risk sentiment as domestic asset allocation has shifted.”

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