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Forex Flash: Time for a reality check - OCBC Bank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank notes that majors tumbled against the dollar overnight on heightened risk aversion and renewed global growth concerns with the NZD, AUD, and CAD leading the way lower against the USD (and trailing their G10 counterparts).

Meanwhile, he sees that JPY jumped across the board as risk appetite shrank after China reported disappointing Q1 GDP numbers. He adds that late in the NY session, news reports surrounding the Boston bombings compounded the market´s nervousness. Looking ahead, he adds that markets may continue to trade with a cautious tone ahead of the G20 meeting on Thursday, with investors likely wary of further position adjustments across different asset classes. Specifically, the recent US Treasury report highlighting the Yen may keep Yen bears sidelined in the near term. He writes, “On our end however, we do not expect much opposition from the G20 with regards to yen developments and any ensuing rhetoric is not expected to be unduly strident.” In a nutshell, he feels that last night´s price action across the different asset classes may have been the result of a market that has been fed a consistent diet of quasi-positive headlines for too long, and the Chinese data miss provided a convenient catalyst for profit taking... or in short, “a reality check”.

Forex: EUR/CHF trading at session highs at 1.2163/65

The EUR/CHF is trading at session highs during European trading Tuesday, having edged higher gradually to test the 1.2163/65 level in these moments. This represents a staunch recovery off of its opening, which was trading as low as 1.2135. At the time of writing, the pair as notched an advance of +0.17%.
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Forex Flash: EUR/USD expected to fail at 1.3150 – Commerzbank

The EUR/USD continues to be expected to fail at 1.3150, an interim peak (Elliott wave count and TD perfection set-up), “and we look for the resumption of the down move”. Commerzbank are, however, unable to rule out another retest of the 1.3150/1.3225 zone prior to the swing lower. “We suspect loss of the 12th April low at 1.5036 should be enough to de-stabilize the chart near term. Intraday the market should then find initial support circa 1.2995/47 and the 200 day ma at 1.2917 en route to the 1.2740 recent low”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, pointing to key support at 1.2679/61 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-to-January rise and the November 2012 low) and longer term target at 1.2400 and then 1.2042, the 2012 low.
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