China Q4 2018 GDP Preview: Major Banks expectations
After the recent market turmoil, the focus has shifted back to the China’s Q4 GDP of 2018, which is scheduled to release on coming Monday. As we get closer to the release date, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of major banks regarding the upcoming data.
Most of the economists and researchers are expecting that China’s GDP has cooled down to 6.3%-6.4% on yearly basis, against the previous reading of 6.5%.
“For Q4 GDP, activity data for Oct/Nov and Dec qtr PMIs were weak, all pointing to slower GDP. Composite manufacturing PMIs slipped to 49.9 while services PMIs were elevated at 53.3. Retail sales/IP momentum points to GDP easing from 6.5% to 6.4%/y (mkt 6.4%/y). Trade is supportive for growth as the slump in imports (-10%/q in nominal terms) outpaced the 2.5%/q fall in exports. Mkt range 6.2%-6.4%.”
“The week begins with China’s 4Q18 GDP and December data on retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial production. The consensus estimate of 6.4% year-on-year GDP growth is barely a slowdown from 6.5% in the previous quarter despite all the hue and cry that weighed down global markets in the last quarter. However, a sharp deceleration in manufacturing and retail sales as well as in trade growth, and falling industrial profits signal a downside risk to the consensus GDP estimate. Our house forecast is 6.3%.”
“Analysts at Standard Chartered are expecting that China’s growth may have slowed in Q4 to 6.3% yoy against the previous reading of 6.5%.”