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EUR/GBP: Bulls back in charge counting down of Brexit vote

  • EUR/GBP bulls have stepped in ahead of the Brexit vote, with the price rallying from 0.8878 to a high of 0.8936 so far as traders position, (which may mean out of the market altogether), ahead of the event. 
  • ECB's Draghi: Recent developments have been weaker than expected.

EUR/GBP is going to be the cross to watch over the Brexit vote, and to some extent cable as well. However, given the direct relationship EUR/GBP has to what goes down on mainland Europe and the UK, the focus can stay with the cross, especially given the value of pips to be had or lost. 

We could see some wild price action over the event, considering that most players will likely leave the gamblers to speculate and therefore, most of the smart money is already positioned and the big clippers are out of the game for the event, waiting to trade the outcome. However, if the deal is rejected, it really depends on by what margin PM May lost to the vote to. A small margin could be considered a meanwhile victory, whereas a large majority loss will either be taken in the stride of the markets or very bearishly. 

Does Defeat Tonight Really Change Anything? 

Analysts at TD Securities argued the following:

  • "In some ways, not at all. The clock continues to tick towards the 29 March deadline, without any notable progress. After today, that leaves 72 days until the deadline.
  • Some may be tempted to speculate that as the clock runs down, the probability rises that the UK does not leave the EU at all. To some extent, this is true: the lower the odds of a deal, the higher the odds of No Brexit. It also raises the odds of a No-Deal crash out, however, so both tail risks increase in probability.
  • However, we stress that UK law currently states that unless there is a new act of parliament to change it, the UK will leave the EU on 29 March at 11pm GMT. In other words, the EU could offer an extension, the UK could withdraw Article 50, or a deal could be reached in principle ahead of this date. But unless a new act of Parliament is passed that changes or removes the 29 March date, the UK will legally leave the EU at the end of March.
  •  While we have seen a majority of MPs in the House of Commons reject a No-Deal Brexit in recent weeks, we have yet to see a majority emerge in favour of another model. This is a legal requirement to avoid the UK crashing out at the end of March. Unless and until this happens, the UK remains at risk of crashing out. Currently, we describe a 20% chance of this outcome."

Besides Brexit, there has also been a focus on the ECB. Draghi was speaking 'dovishly' in Parliament today and the key takeaways on that were

  • A significant amount of monetary policy stimulus still needed.

  • Uncertainties notably related to global factors and remain prominent.

EUR/GBP levels

While below the 0.8941 October high and the short term uptrend, analysts at Commerzbank would allow for further weakness to the 200-day ma at 0.8862. "While this holds on a closing basis we will assume that the market is still relatively neutral. However the market has failed to clear the .9101 August high and it is possible that it will prove to be a top and below the 200 day ma will target .8810 the low from the end of November. Above .9101/20 would target the top of the 2016-2019 channel at .9165. Further consolidation looks likely very near term."

 

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