OctaFX | OctaFX Forex Broker
Open trading account
Back

US: Shutdown reduces dataflow, while households respond to lower mortgage rates – ABN AMRO

Han de Jong, chief economist of ABN AMRO, points out that the flow of economic data from the US is currently reduced as the statisticians from the Bureau of Economic Analysis are not in work.

Key Quotes

“They are among the 800,000 or so government workers affected by the shutdown. The statisticians elsewhere (the Fed, the Bureau of Labour Statistics and private data gatherers) are not affected, so some data is still being produced.”

“Recent days have seen the ISM for the non-manufacturing sector decline from 60.7 in November to 57.6 in December. That is quite a drop, but still a decent level. Business confidence among SMEs eased a little, but is still robust (104.4 in December, down from 104.8). Perhaps the most interesting piece of economic US data of the last couple of days relates to mortgage applications. This is a weekly series and can be volatile.”

“Mortgage applications rose 23.5% in the week to 4 January, after a 8.5% drop in the previous week. These numbers may be affected by calendar effects. But what is interesting is that the subindex of ‘refinancings’ was the main driver. The sharp increase in the latest week is still modest in a historical perspective, but it suggests that households are very alert and respond quickly to lower mortgage rates. This improves their financial situation which isn’t bad to begin with.”

USD/JPY drops to fresh session low, nearing 108.00 mark post-US CPI

Mostly in-line US inflation figures do little to provide any respite to the USD. Risk-off mood/sliding US bond yields prompt some weakness in the las
Read more Previous

USD/CAD jumps back closer to session tops amid fall in oil prices

   •  The USD failed to gain any respite from the recent selling after in-line CPI figures.    •  A sudden fall in oil prices undermined Loonie and t
Read more Next
Start livechat