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UK: GDP surprise - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities note that the UK’s monthly GDP in November rose by more than expected, increasing 0.2% m/m against consensus of 0.1% and their forecast of a negative print.

Key Quotes

“The surprise to our forecast came entirely from the Services sector, which rose 0.3% m/m, while industrial production and manufacturing both fell, disappointing market expectations. November was the 5th consecutive monthly decline for the UK manufacturing sector, which has now contracted in 8 of the last 10 months.”

“Despite the better-than-expected November GDP print, the 3-month rolling growth rate slipped to 0.3% 3m/3m, and points to continued deceleration in economic activity through the end of the year. An unchanged Dec GDP print would imply Q4 growth of 0.3% q/q.”

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