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France: Industrial production set for another 1.0% contraction in 4Q18 - ING

Julien Manceaux, senior economist at ING, points out that industrial production in France declined by 1.3% in November and manufacturing production decreased by 1.4%, while the largest drop was measured in the manufacturing of consumer durables (-2.4% MoM), which is 10% below last years level.

Key Quotes

“This figure reflects the lack of consumer spending as a result of the numerous road and shop closures because of the 'yellow vest' protests.”

“After two quarters of negative growth, industrial production growth only reached 0.7% quarter on quarter in 3Q18, because of production problems in the automobile sector and is set for another 1.0% contraction in 4Q18 because of the 'yellow vest' crisis and its rising impact on domestic demand.”

“Therefore, after a dynamic 2.4% growth in 2017, French industrial production is likely to grow by only 0.5% in 2018 and 1.0% in 2019, which is only slightly higher than previous years (0.3% in 2014-2016).”

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