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EUR/USD risk reversals just shy of par

The EUR/USD one-month 25 delta risk reversals (EUR1MRR) are closing on par and could flip (turn positive) towards EUR calls (bullish bets) if the spot rises above 1.1586 (61.8% Fib R of 1.1815/1.1215).

As of writing, the risk reversals, which represent a premium of put volatility over that for calls, on options closer to the money, are trading at -0.125 - the highest since April. 20. The negative number indicates put (bearish) bias. That, however, has weakened significantly in the last 2.5 months, as indicated by the sharp rise in the risk reversals from -1.10 to near par levels.


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