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Oil: Headed northwards – Danske Bank

Analysts at Danske Bank note that the oil (futures up 2% on the day to USD50.5/bbl) has continued its gradual climb and is now up 10% YTD and they are forecasting prices to surge towards USD 65/bbl short term as OPEC+ cuts come into effect.

Key Quotes

“Oil has been an important driver of US interest rates and break-evens recently. 5Y treasury yields are up another 7bp since yesterday, making the short end of the US yield curve ever less inverted as it continues to flatten.”

“The market-implied probability of a Fed hike in March increased from 0% to 8%. 10Y US break-evens are up 13bp over the past three days following the climb in oil, significantly outperforming nominal yields.”

UK: Politics in focus - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities point out that in the UK, debate on the "meaningful vote" kicks off, with the vote on the Brexit deal expected next Tues or
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USD/CHF struggles near 3-month lows, around 0.9800 handle

   •  Fading safe-haven demand/softer Swiss CPI figures weigh on CHF.    •  Persistent USD selling bias continues to cap any meaningful up-move.    
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